The 30-share Sensex dropped 155 points to end at 27,735.
With the cooling down of heatwaves as the monsoon spreads across the country, power demand has fallen by 12.5 per cent from the start of this month till Monday. Peak power demand of the country had touched a record of 210 Gw last week, mostly due to rising temperatures and opening up of the economy. Compared with the beginning of this month, almost all states have seen a fall in power demand. Punjab, however, is an exception where the power demand on Monday was 17 per cent higher than on June 1.
It has also predicted a below normal monsoon for the season with a Long Period Average of 93 per cent, subject to the error margin of 5 per cent.
Rains have been 5% below normal so far, but Met department sticks to its forecast
Sri Lanka meteorological department predicts better weather in coming days
A number of significant linkages between rainfall and economic outcomes have policy implications.
Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
The 30-share Sensex dropped 308 points to end below 25K at 24,894.
Steady progress in June; north and central regions to get good pre-showers
The 30-share Sensex ended 363 points higher at 27,687.
The drought of 2009 still haunts the India Meteorological Department.
Encouraged by improvement in corporate earnings and decent monsoon forecasts, Citigroup has raised its BSE Sensex target to 28,800 for the fiscal year ending March 2017.
Monsoon normally starts withdrawing beginning September 1 from west Rajasthan.
The weather department said its latest model analysis had indicated that the moist easterly winds in the lower level from the Bay of Bengal would spread to northwest India, covering Punjab and Haryana by July 10, leading to the advancement of monsoon and an increase in rainfall activity over the region, including Delhi, from July 10 onwards.
The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall in some parts of the state in next 48 hours. "The southwest monsoon has arrived in Maharashtra. The onset line is passing over Harnai, Solapur, Ramagundum (Telangana) and Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh)," IMD Mumbai centre's deputy director general K S Hosalikar said.
Retail inflation declined to a 25-month low of 4.25 per cent in May mainly on account of softening prices of food and fuel items, with experts saying that RBI is expected to hold interest rates steady in the current fiscal. This is the fourth straight month when retail inflation has declined and the third straight month of Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remaining within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. CPI-based inflation stood at 4.7 per cent in April and 7.04 per cent in May 2022.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
A likely western disturbance over north India during the weekend might cause heavy to very heavy showers in a few places, including New Delhi.
Widespread rains lashed parts of Tamil Nadu on Thursday, prompting authorities to declare a holiday for schools in Chennai and many other districts.
What stocks will gain from a normal monsoon?
The weather office forecasts monsoon rains to be above average this year after the droughts ravaged crops and worsened rural distress
Monsoon will be insufficient this year.
Monsoon will hit Kerala between May 28 and 30, two-three days before its normal onset date of June 1, private forecasting agency Skymet said.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
The southwest monsoon which reached the country on May 30 well within its normal onset date
Twelve of the 36 meteorological subdivisions recorded deficient rainfall, while the rest witnessed normal to excess rain. In total, 38 per cent of the 662 districts received below-normal rain.
The IMD, in its onset date forecast on May 15, had said the monsoon is likely to hit the southern state on June 5, four days after its normal arrival.
The bounteous monsoon this year has already dumped 1159.4 mm of rainfall in Delhi till Thursday afternoon, the highest since 1964 and the third-highest ever, according to the IMD data
Automobile retail sales in India witnessed a double-digit year-on-year growth in February driven by robust sales across segments including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, automobile dealers' body FADA said on Monday. Total registrations across segments rose 16 per cent year-on-year to 17,75,424 units last month, as compared to 15,31,196 vehicles in February 2022. Passenger vehicle retail sales rose 11 per cent to 287,182 units last month, against 258,736 units in the year-ago period.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
'Usually the average rainfall per day is around 8 mm and India is receiving 10 to 11 mm per day since the last one week.' 'July seems to be very good for the entire country.'
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
The monsoon this year in India was likely to be 'below normal' at 95% of LPA: Skymet
The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said the monsoon this year is expected to be 'above normal.'
Monsoon is likely to reach Maharashtra and Goa in the next two days, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday, with a private weather forecasting agency predicting sustained heavy rains later this week.
Increased production of pulses, oilseeds, and cereals will help boost domestic supplies and contribute to keeping inflation low in the coming months.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
However, it's too soon to see any trend; July rain is key.
Sowing had started on a sluggish note in several parts of the country because of delay in the onset of the monsoon but has picked up pace subsequently as the rains progressed and performed appreciably well in August.
Several global models are predicting El Nio to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.
